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2025 CDR Outlook: Policy Drivers Shaping the Carbon Removal Market

What has caught our attention on policy? The 2030 breakthrough goal for carbon dioxide removals: 

"By 2030, carbon dioxide removals are responsibly scaled to remove 3.5 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide per year. 500 million tonnes of this must be stored for at least 100 years." 

As we consider the high-level political speeches from Davos, we are very attuned to the fact that 2030 is rapidly approaching. With that in mind, we decided to examine the United Nations Race to Zero's 2030 breakthrough goal for carbon dioxide removals and determine how best to support the pursuit of it in 2025 and beyond. 

Puro focuses primarily on the voluntary carbon market, guiding suppliers and buyers through the certification process. We leverage existing frameworks and actively seek partnerships to enhance our impact. As we navigate the dynamic landscape of carbon removals, part of our 2025 strategy will be shaped in part by emerging trends and regulatory developments. We're closely monitoring three key areas that will significantly influence the future of carbon removal: demand signals, compliance markets, and market infrastructure. 
 
Demand Signals for Carbon Removal 

SBTi Corporate Net-Zero Standard Consultation: We're eagerly awaiting the consultation on the Corporate Net-Zero Standard. Currently, there's a recommendation to purchase permanent removals by 2030, and we hope this will become a requirement. It's critical to establish an affordable, achievable near-term demand signal, and Puro stands ready to support this process. 

ISO Net Zero Standard Consultation: We expect a consultation from ISO on their Net Zero Standard, through which we seek a supportive near-term signal for carbon removals. This could be another important pathway for creating market momentum. 

EU Green Claims Directive Negotiations: Political discussions begin on January 28, 2025, for the EU Green Claims Directive. We're advocating for support of high-quality corporate claims that include a meaningful role for durable carbon dioxide removal. Our goal is to emphasize action now, not just in 2050, recognizing that voluntary efforts have been instrumental in driving sector progress to date. 

Compliance Markets 

Removals are already a part of compliance markets; however, there are other markets to support. These could be in the form of carbon taxes, emissions trading systems (ETSs), and low-carbon fuel standards in California and British Colombia, and the California ETS, as well as the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA). Please see the Puro.earth Policy Meta-map here

We are particularly focused on UK Emissions Trading System (ETS) and revision of the EU ETS, Brazil ETS, Japan ETS as well as looking at the role of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and UK Sustainable Aviation Fuels mandate which promotes removals in the supply chain through issuing more credits for fuels with a lower carbon intensity. 

Carbon prices from most ETSs are currently insufficient to deploy durable CDR technologies. Therefore, we need to explore complementary measures. One potential avenue is fuel policies, which often have higher carbon prices. However, we must investigate whether these fuel policies can be effectively adapted to support durable CDR implementation. 

 Building the Market Infrastructure 

The market infrastructure for carbon removal. Here are the key developments we anticipate in 2025: 

1. Carbon Removal Carbon Farming Regulation 

  • Detailed certification rules are expected to be released. See Puro’s policy brief here. 
  • Puro plans to apply for recognition as a certification scheme when applications open later this year. 


2. Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism (PACM)

  • Further guidelines on PACM operations are forthcoming. 
  • Puro aims to provide certification services within this framework. 


3. Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market (IC-VCM) 

  • Puro will continue to support IC-VCM's efforts to enhance their global benchmark for carbon credit quality. 
  • These developments will significantly shape the carbon removal market infrastructure, ensuring higher standards and more robust certification processes. 

In summary: 

Our primary focus is on the voluntary carbon market, while simultaneously working to develop legislation for carbon dioxide removals. We recognize that this represents a long-term opportunity, but we understand the importance of these policy signals in shaping the future of the industry. 

What's Next? 

In this overview, we didn't delve into several important areas: 

  • National pledges and targets 
  • Sustainability reporting legislation 
  • Industrial policy 

These topics warrant further exploration. We're considering examining these areas in more depth in future analyses. 

We Want to Hear from You 

We're keen to understand what you're working on or what topics you'd like us to explore further. Your input helps us tailor our content to your interests and needs. Please share your thoughts and suggestions with us.


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